Berfin Kardaslar works as an Economist at Garanti - BBVA Research since November 2024. She obtained her bachelor’s degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University and her master’s degree in Analysis and Policy in Economics from the Paris School of Economics. Currently, she is in the dissertation phase of her doctoral studies at Humboldt University of Berlin.
Before her tenure at Garanti BBVA, Berfin served as a Research Associate at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and as a Teaching Assistant at Humboldt University of Berlin.May 5, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 3.0% m/m, in line with our expectations but slightly lower than the consensus (3.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 37.9%. We maintain our 2025 year-end inflation forecast of 31%, which we had lowered from the previous 32% amid the recent decline in oil prices.
April 17, 2025
High frequency data for 1Q25 point that the q/q growth will likely remain steady as in 4Q24, supported by the domestic demand. Despite the uncertainty on trade wars and recent tightening in financial conditions, we evaluate risks as balanced on our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, given the strong buffer of 1Q25 growth.
April 3, 2025
Consumer inflation rose by 2.46% m/m, lower than both our expectation (3%) and the market consensus (2.9%), driving annual inflation down to 38.1%. We have revised our 2025 year-end inflation forecast to 32% from 29% on the expected pass-through from the recent currency depreciation.
