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May 8, 2025
Recent softness in sentiment is not enough to shift policy as solid demand and stable jobs data support a continued pause. Attention now turns to assess whether this cautious pause could extend deeper into the second half of the year.
May 6, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 53.0% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.
May 6, 2025
Social Security affiliation increased by 231,000 people, and unemployment fell by 67,400. After seasonal adjustment (swda), the number of contributors is estimated to have risen by 64,000, and unemployment dropped by 21,000. The percentage of General Regime affiliates with temporary contracts remained at 13.7% (swda).
May 6, 2025
The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.
May 5, 2025
Amid mixed economic data and the delayed effects of recently imposed tariffs, we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged this week at its 4.25-4.50% target range; it will likely signal it has room to maintain its policy stance heading into the June meeting.
May 5, 2025
The production of liquid hydrocarbons of Pemex in the first quarter of 2025 vs. the previous quarter showed a decrement of 55.1 thousand barrels a day mainly due to a lower production of heavy and light crude oil by 63.8 thousand barrels a day.
May 5, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 3.0% m/m, in line with our expectations but slightly lower than the consensus (3.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 37.9%. We maintain our 2025 year-end inflation forecast of 31%, which we had lowered from the previous 32% amid the recent decline in oil prices.
May 5, 2025
This year, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington were characterized by noise. The biggest concerns remain the impact of tariffs on the economy and on financial assets, especially the dollar.
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