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May 6, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be 53.0% at year-end with a public deficit and PSBR of 3.8% and 4.3% of GDP, respectively.
May 6, 2025
The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.
May 5, 2025
The production of liquid hydrocarbons of Pemex in the first quarter of 2025 vs. the previous quarter showed a decrement of 55.1 thousand barrels a day mainly due to a lower production of heavy and light crude oil by 63.8 thousand barrels a day.
May 5, 2025
Consumer prices rose by 3.0% m/m, in line with our expectations but slightly lower than the consensus (3.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 37.9%. We maintain our 2025 year-end inflation forecast of 31%, which we had lowered from the previous 32% amid the recent decline in oil prices.
May 5, 2025
This year, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington were characterized by noise. The biggest concerns remain the impact of tariffs on the economy and on financial assets, especially the dollar.
May 4, 2025
On April 29, President Trump signed an executive order and a proclamation that modified the current tariffs related to security, immigration, the automotive industry, steel, and aluminum. These changes eliminate tariff stacking and provide rebates for the automotive sector.
May 3, 2025
The tertiary sector registered zero growth compared to the previous quarter (0.0% QoQ), while the industry contracted (-)0.3% QoQ during the same period; only the primary sector posted positive growth, with 8.1% QoQ (following an 8.5% decline in 4Q24).
May 2, 2025
The national unemployment rate for March 2025 was 9.6% and the seasonally adjusted rate was 9.1% marking the third consecutive monthly decrease and placing it more than one percentage point below its 2024 average. This positive performance in the unemployment rate is mainly attributed to the strong dynamics of employment.
April 30, 2025
The Board of Banrep reduced the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9.25% in April. This decision was unanimous. On this occasion, they highlighted that inflation and inflation expectations derived from the debt markets declined.
April 29, 2025
The economy slowed and grew less than expected in Q1 2025 (0.6% q/q), mainly due to sluggish consumption and weaker-than-estimated investment momentum. Growth was accompanied by higher employment, although with fewer hours worked and mixed signals on productivity.
April 28, 2025
After removing the quarter’s negative seasonal effects, employment rose by 0.7 % QoQ SWDA—0.1 percentage point above Social Security registrations—and hours worked also climbed by 0.2 %. Meanwhile, the temporary employment rate held at 15.6 % SWDA , and the unemployment rate dropped to 10.7 % SWDA .
