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May 8, 2025
Despite rising uncertainty and early signs of cooling, the U.S. labor market remains broadly balanced, driven by services, stable participation, and moderated wage growth. However, risks from policy shifts and slower job openings are building.
January 28, 2025
Notwithstanding BBVA Research's assessment that widespread deportations are improbable and that significant deviations in migration trends —beyond those tied to economic cycles and labor demand— are unlikely, a chilling effect could nonetheless materialize.
August 14, 2024
Although the Unemployment Rate (UR) increase raises concerns, it remains just 0.1 percentage points away from the Federal Reserve's long-term target, and the July figure didn't trigger the Sahm Rule due to changes in the calculation. Ongoing monitoring of the UR is necessary to assess future risks.
July 10, 2024
There is still no clear indication of a severe slowdown in the labor market, though it has weakened more than it initially appears. The slower rate of job creation, coupled with frequent downward adjustments to monthly employment figures, suggests a labor market that remains robust but not excessively tight.
May 9, 2024
In the first quarter of 2024, job creation remained strong, but overall employment growth has slowed compared to last year. April saw only 175 thousand new jobs added, well below the expected 243 thousand.
February 9, 2024
Signs indicate a gradual slowdown/normalization of the labor market, with NIFB survey trends suggesting no acceleration in employment, alongside lower Job openings and quits indicating slower wage growth.
January 10, 2024
Despite the labor market's resilience, the slowdown in job creation in 2023 is reflected by the 2.7 million additional jobs, considerably fewer than the previous year. The unemployment rate in December remained at 3.7%, largely explained by the decline in the labor force.
May 7, 2021
April’s job creation was shockingly below expectations. The unemployment rate increased slightly as more people entered the labor force encouraged by vaccinations and reopenings. Overall, labor market conditions suggest that the recovery is still vulnerable.
April 2, 2021
March saw an addition of 916,000 jobs to nonfarm payroll and a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.2pp to 6.0%. This high uptick in the employment situation was brought about by a successful vaccination campaign, the ongoing reopening of the economy and massive fiscal support.
March 5, 2021
In February, the economy added 379,000 nonfarm payroll jobs while the unemployment rate edged down to 6.2%. To secure a faster recovery, policymakers should continue provisioning ample fiscal and monetary support. Premature removal of either could threaten the prospects of the recovery.
February 5, 2021
January’s labor market report continued to show strains from the resurgence in Covid-19 cases, with nonfarm payrolls relatively unchanged at +46K. Despite the tepid hiring conditions, the unemployment rate fell 40bp to 6.3%, with the number of unemployed dropping by 600K.
December 4, 2020
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 245K in November, down from 610K in October and lower than market expectations (432K). Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7% from 6.9% in October. November’s employment figures suggest that the labor market is losing momentum as the pandemic worsens, and fiscal support wanes down.
