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    May 9, 2025

    Colombia | Annual inflation surprised on the upside in April, reaching 5.2%

    Annual inflation in April surprises on the upside (5.2%), driven by regulated items and goods. Core inflation (excluding food) also increases. Doubts persist regarding the speed of future moderation. This result may lead to upward revisions of forecasts and uncertainty about the future monetary policy stance.

    May 5, 2025

    Global | Commodities: volatility and conflicting trends

    Commodity markets, like other financial markets, have been unusually volatile in the last month, largely due to the trade policy announcements by the new United States administration.

    April 8, 2025

    Colombia | Inflation Ends 4-Month Stable Streak, Settles at 5.1% in March.

    In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.

    February 24, 2025

    Europe | Gas still keeps EU on edge

    Recent fluctuations in gas prices have had a considerable impact on both activity and inflation. Going forward, we see supply factors that can moderate these tensions.

    February 9, 2025

    Colombia | Inflation remained at 5.2% for the third consecutive month

    Monthly inflation in January was 0.94%, exceeding analysts' expectations (0.82% projected in the Central Bank of Colombia’s survey). As a result, the annual variation remained stable for the third consecutive month at approximately 5.22%.

    December 9, 2024

    Spain | The impact on the economy of the increase in US trade tariffs

    It may well be negative in the short run, although it should be cushioned by the relatively low direct exposure of the Spanish economy to trade with the US. In the medium term, the outcome will be determined by the goals set by the new US President and the economic policy responses, both in the eurozone and in Spain.

    August 9, 2024

    Colombia | In July, annual inflation resumed its downward trend, standing at 6.9%

    In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month's figure.

    July 9, 2024

    Colombia | Annual inflation remains stable for the second month in a row in June, at 7.2%

    In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.

    May 6, 2024

    Global | From short-term chaos to long-term uncertainty

    Commodity prices are front and center in global economic discussions. The last two months have seen the cost of oil rise by around 10%, alongside significant volatility. This has a lot to do with the short-term chaos.

    February 26, 2024

    Global | Oil price, possible tailwinds

    The oil market remains at the center of the global spotlight. This has been the case for some months now due to the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, a confrontation reminiscent of the most difficult moments of the oil market in the 1970s.

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